A mere eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
